multifamily values have peaked, now what?

May 21st, 2026

Whoa, did you say apartment building values have peaked?

Yes, that is exactly what I am saying.  After an incredible run, values have peaked and its time to cash in. 

Last week I travelled to Edmonton to attend some meetings, visit some properties, and meet fellow investors at the Western Canadian Multifamily Conference. The purpose was to get the sentiment for what fellow investors, especially the larger ones, feel about the direction the rental (and subsequently the multifamily) market is headed.

For the most part the answer was business as usual. Times are good, although rents have dropped a bit but are still at 4 year highs. CMHC is still throwing money away hand over fist at anyone who wants to be a landlord, so there is no risk to buy right now is there? I mean if you can buy with only 5% down and a 50 year amortization what could possibly go wrong?

Well I have to call bullshit. You see I have been in heavy ‘sell mode’ in multifamily since late 2024. In fact we just sold our 18 unit project in Leduc for a whopping $148,000 per door! This marks the end to another successfully executed deal from start to finish – the 9th successful sale in a row and I can proudly say VERY PROFITABLY. In fact no investor has ever lost money since we began our multifamily company back in 2004.

But Cory, with prices surging and continuing to smash all time highs, why on earth would you choose to sell now? Well you see, I have seen this movie a few times and I know how it ends, or at least how this market cycle ends.

Here are just a few proof points:

  • The RENTAL MARKET in Alberta is very cyclical and predictable. There is a downturn every 10 years. In the last year rents have dropped significantly in Alberta, and likely will for another 18 months.
  • SUPPLY is still increasing, with thousands of new units still under construction.  National vacancy has been rising (and rents falling) for 19 months in a row, with no sign of slowing down.
  • IMMIGRATION has come to a grinding halt, mostly since it has become a political hot potato, especially with high youth unemployment and inflation.
  • BONDS continue to surge with increasing oil prices, which is leading to inflation and almost certainly rate increases which will put upward pressure on CAP rates.
  • CMHC keeps moving the goalposts. Many investors are only doing deals with the affordable MLI Select formula, which they keep tweaking, and rumors suggest the tightening will continue now that the government has ‘accomplished’ its goal of creating much needed affordable housing. 

It is my personal opinion that the MF market has peaked, and if you own a project that has equity and perhaps is causing you some pain, I would strongly suggest selling it now as I feel values will almost certainly be lower in a year or 2 from now. In times like this where greed creeps in, my gut tells me its time to cash in my chips and go home. 

Now don’t get me wrong, deals are still out there, one simply must dig a lot deeper to find them, especially in the multifamily space. I compare it to a day on the slopes, we are all looking for that perfect ‘bluebird’ day, but even on the poor weather days, good runs can still be found it just takes some more effort.

If you have a healthy reserve fund, and/or have just acquired a project it will take time to make the gains, however you will be fine in the long run.

So what am I doing right now? After the last successful sale, I am once again on the hunt for larger, value add, multifamily assets however most recently I am focused on putting together an investment syndication for a mixed commercial project, and my interest has been piqued by a different real estate asset class altogether. More on that in the next emails.

What do you think?  Do you agree that the market is taking a breather and better deals will be found next year, or business as usual and full steam ahead?  I would love to hear from you!

Happy Investing

Cory Sperle